INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
Engaging Syria? U.S. Constraints and Opportunities
Damascus/Washington/Brussels, 11 February 2009: Constrained by the legacy of a troubled relationship, the Obama administration’s first steps will be crucial if the new Syria policy it is preparing is to restore mutual trust without compromising core principles.
Engaging Syria? U.S. Constraints and Opportunities,* the latest International Crisis Group report, looks at what the administration has inherited and draws policy lessons. For the U.S., improved ties present clear benefits: Damascus holds important cards in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine, is Iran’s most important Arab ally and has substantial influence over Hamas and Hizbollah. There is potential common ground, from resuming Israeli-Syrian negotiations, to consolidating progress in Iraq to blunting the rise of jihadi militancy and sectarianism.
But the U.S.-Syrian relationship will develop against the backdrop of a range of sanctions and UN resolutions, a bipartisan consensus in Washington concerning Lebanese sovereignty and unprecedented estrangement. All this dictates the need for a prudent, progressive approach that first rebuilds ties and restores confidence.
“In seeking to pressure the U.S. to take account of its interests, Damascus has adopted policies viewed as hostile by Washington, while U.S. attempts to promote its core concerns typically have antagonised Syria”, says Peter Harling, Crisis Group’s Iraq, Syria and Lebanon Project Director. “How the two sides first engage one another will be critical; mistakes, miscalculations or mismatched expectations could do significant damage”.
To build a more fruitful relationship, the Obama administration should consider three steps:
- articulate early on clear guiding principles, including renewed peace negotiations, support for withdrawal from the Golan, acknowledgment of positive Syrian gestures and no compromise on the international tribunal for the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri or Lebanon’s sovereignty;
- establish a full field presence, including nominating an ambassador, setting up a channel between Presidents Obama and Assad, most likely via the U.S. Middle East Special Envoy George Mitchell and dispatching a senior military officer to discuss Iraqi security issues; and
- rethink sanctions on the basis of clear policy objectives, beginning with streamlining licensing procedures and loosening restrictions on humanitarian or public safety grounds.
“The question is no longer whether but how to engage Syria – and that is where the hard part begins”, says Robert Malley, Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Program Director. “Breaking with the Bush legacy is part of the solution, but the relationship was problematic before Bush, so simply reverting to what preceded it is no answer”.
*Read the full Crisis Group report on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org
