INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
Guinea-Bissau: Building a Real Stability Pact
Dakar/Brussels, 29 January 2009: Despite Guinea-Bissau’s widely praised elections in 2008, allegations of attempted assassination and coup d’état heighten the need to guarantee stability and institutional reforms.
Guinea-Bissau: Building a Real Stability Pact,* the latest policy briefing from the International Crisis Group, argues that the West African country’s new prime minister, Carlos Gomes Junior, has an opportunity to carry out the administrative and political measures needed to strengthen the state, stabilise the economy and fight drug trafficking. But he will need to base his approach on political dialogue with President Nino Vieira, the army and rivals within his own party.
“Guinea-Bissau’s institutions remain structurally feeble”, says Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s West Africa Project Director. “Without a real commitment on the part of the ruling elite to end the intrigues and violence that are so damaging to the country’s prospects, it will remain unstable and unable to cope with rampant corruption or change its status as a key drugs transiting country”.
Notwithstanding the successful November 2008 legislative elections, the permanent threat of military intervention in politics adds to the risks of government paralysis. An alleged coup d’état in July 2008 and an alleged attempt to kill President Vieira one week after the elections illustrate the country’s fragility. The elections resulted in a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly for the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) and its leader, Gomes Junior. Nevertheless, there are serious fissures within the party; Vieira and Gomes Junior are bitter foes, and shifts in alliances within PAIGC could bring down the prime minister before the presidential elections scheduled for 2010.
Prime Minister Gomes Junior should initiate talks with the president and the ruling party, with a view to producing a program to which all stakeholders commit. A similar dialogue needs to be opened with the military leadership on speeding up security sector reform.
Regional partners and donor countries should press all political actors to take part in the above dialogues and support their conclusions. Donors should release money promised for security sector reform as soon as possible and set up an effective mechanism to coordinate their efforts in that area. The UN Peace Building Commission (PBC) should help keep promised donor aid (both financial and technical) flowing, in particular for security sector and administrative reforms and the fight against drug trafficking.
“Firm commitment is needed from all political and military actors”, warns François Grignon, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director, “to engage in a dialogue directed at supporting reforms and to seize, while it is still there, the outstretched hand of donors”.
*Read the full Crisis Group report on : http://www.crisisgroup.org
